Then the opening line of the article reads: “It isn’t out of the question. In the face of American inaction, more and more countries leave NATO and go under the Russian umbrella.The USA Today published an article titled “Did Obama spy on Trump?” However, "insurgencies" might cause "pro-Russian" governments to sprout up in those countries. Of course, Putin is never going to straight-up invade. And Trump has already said that America's word with regard to its allies might be up for grabs. The Baltic States are defended by NATO, which really is only as good as America's word. What Putin really wants is all of Eastern Europe.
By the way, none of these are mutually exclusive. It's that he significantly increases the risk of "black swan" events that would precipitate truly serious crises.
The ugly: The real problem with Trump is not so much his incompetency. The Democrats would win the 2018 midterm elections, further cementing Washington gridlock, and Cory Booker would get elected president in 2020. Russia's influence in Eastern Europe and the Middle East would grow. On the foreign policy front, America's position in the world would keep slowly eroding as it has under Obama, but without any catastrophe. Some form of tax cut would probably get passed, but without any meaningful tax reform. ObamaCare would get "repealed" under reconciliation rules, but at the same time, Congressional Republicans would postpone getting behind an actual reform, meaning that ObamaCare would limp along in all but name. In this scenario, the Trump administration, such as it is, would mostly be taken up by bureaucratic knife-fights between various clans: Trumpists (presumably under Steve Bannon), traditional conservatives (presumably under Mike Pence), and various cadres of opportunists. China would come to realize that the gravy train is over, and that calling for "free trade" while enforcing rigorous capital controls and subsidizing its export sector in scores of different ways is not sustainable, and would offer some concessions, but we wouldn't get a full-blown trade war (or a war at all). Ukraine would remain in Russia's sphere of influence, but NATO wouldn't unravel.
On the foreign policy front, a realpolitik retrenchment would enable the Syrian conflict to simmer down, with Assad holding on to most of Syria, and ISIS getting smothered by an international coalition. Instead of repealing ObamaCare and then sort-of-maybe hoping one day to get around to a reform of their own, Republicans would unite around a package that would cover everyone, while relaxing some of the most egregious regulations that have caused ObamaCare's tailspin. Tax reform would include the requisite Republican wish list of corporate tax cuts and tax rate flattening, but also a significant piece of pro-family tax reform and wage subsidies to boost working-class families and working-class employment. On the domestic policy front, this would mean legislation that is mostly driven from Congress but shaped in a way to avoid Trump's veto pen.
The good: The best-case scenario for a Trump administration would be one where Trump stays mostly removed from everyday policymaking, and at the same time uses his often uncanny instincts for political opportunity to shape outcomes in key ways.
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